We’ve now seen 5 published mock drafts, including ones where the original author has revised his rankings. In those rankings we’ve seen a wide variety of players show up in different positions. But there’s also been some relative consensus amongst the prognosticators as to which players are destined to be taken in the top 10.
Below is an aggregate mock draft, culling the previous mocks and averaging the respective draft position of the slotted players. So, for example, Geno Smith is the number 1 player in 5 of 6 mocks. So it’s pretty easy to guess he’ll go first overall. But other players have seen their relative value show up both high and low in the rankings. WR Justin Hunter was pegged as high as number 2 overall, and as low as 11th. So which of these is to be believed?
Perhaps by averaging the respective drafts the picture becomes a little clearer. In the aggregate mock you’ll see the overall rank, player name, average draft position, and then the ranks in each draft. The only caveat the mocks had varying number of draft slots predicted -- some 10, some 32, etc. If a player wasn't listed in someone's top 10, I calculated them as 11th overall. If a player wasn’t included in these drafts, for the sake of this analysis it’s noted with an asterisk.
Here are the results:
1. QB Geno Smith -- 2.00 (6,1,1,1,1)
2. CB DeMarcus Milliner -- 2.00 (1,3,2,2,2)
3. CB Xavier Rhodes -- 4.00 (2,5,3,5,5)
4. WR Justin Hunter -- 4.80 (11*,2,4,3,4)
5. OLB Jarvis Jones -- 5.40 (4,6,7,7,3)
6. WR Terrance Williams -- 8.40 (11*,4,13,4,10)
7. DE Bjoern Werner -- 8.60 (11*,10,5,10,7)
8. QB Ryan Tanninhill -- 9.00 (8,15,8,6,8)
9. OT Leo Richards -- 9.00 (9,7,9,11,9)
10. DT Star Lotulelei -- 10.40 (3,9,16,13,11)